What North Dakota wheat research must deliver to break even
At the new 20-mill checkoff, a year of North Dakota wheat research pays for itself if it adds about 0.06 bushels per acre. That is far too small to see in state yield data, which is why showing the return takes a different kind of evidence.
On July 1, 2025, North Dakota raised its wheat checkoff from 15 to 20 mills per bushel, the first change since 2005 [1][2]. Research takes about 37% of the North Dakota Wheat Commission’s budget [3]. So a fair question for any grower is what that research has to deliver to be worth the money.
The answer is surprisingly small. On an average crop, a year of research at the new rate pays for itself if it adds about 0.06 bushels per acre across all harvested wheat acres. That is 0.13% of an average yield.
The arithmetic
The 2021-2025 average North Dakota wheat crop was 301 million bushels on 6.3 million harvested acres, at 47.6 bushels per acre [4]. That matches the 300-million-bushel crop the bill’s fiscal note assumed. The fiscal note also assumed refunds of 6.5% [5].
| Annual figure, 2021-2025 average crop | 15 mills | 20 mills |
|---|---|---|
| Net checkoff receipts after 6.5% refunds | $4.2 million | $5.6 million |
| Research at 37% of receipts | $1.56 million | $2.08 million |
| Research spending per harvested acre | $0.25 | $0.33 |
| Break-even yield gain on all acres, at $5.39/bu | 0.046 bu/ac | 0.061 bu/ac |
The break-even is the research spending divided by what one extra bushel per acre is worth across the state. At 20 mills, that is $2.08 million over 6.3 million acres at the 2025 price of $5.39 a bushel.
You can rerun this with other prices, acres or budgets in our research break-even calculator.
Why you can’t see it in the yield data
Since 2000, North Dakota’s all-wheat yield has risen by about 0.76 bushels per acre per year on a straight-line trend. The break-even is about one twelfth of a single year’s trend gain. Breeding is one of many causes of that trend, so this comparison only shows scale.
Around the trend, yields swing a lot. The typical yearly deviation is about 5.3 bushels per acre, mostly from weather. In 2021, a drought year, the state averaged 32 bushels. In 2024 it averaged 57.
The typical swing is about 85 times the break-even gain. No analysis of state yields will ever pick it out. That does not mean the research isn’t paying. It means the evidence has to come from somewhere else.
How sensitive is the answer?
The acres, yields and prices are NASS figures. The 37% research share, the 6.5% refund rate and the one-year comparison are assumptions. Within those limits, the answer stays small.
- Price. From $4.50 up to the 2021-2025 average of $7.31 a bushel, the break-even on all acres runs from about 0.05 to 0.07 bushels per acre.
- Share of acres that benefit. If only half the acres gain in a given year, the break-even rises to 0.09 to 0.15 over the same prices. If a quarter gain, it is 0.18 to 0.29.
- A smaller crop. NASS’s September 2026 estimate puts the 2026 harvested area at about 5.4 million acres. On that area the same research spending breaks even at about 0.07.
- What is being repaid. The research money from the extra 5 mills alone breaks even at 0.015. The whole checkoff, not only research, breaks even at 0.17.
Receipts also move with the crop. At 20 mills, net receipts on the 2021-2025 crops would have ranged from $3.7 million in 2021 to $6.9 million in 2024. Breeding and variety trials run for years, so that swing matters for planning.
What would show the return
If state yields can’t show it, three kinds of evidence can.
- Project-level effects. Estimates of what each funded line of work changes in yield, quality, disease loss or cost, with an uncertainty range.
- Attribution through varieties. Variety trial results combined with acreage by variety show how much of the yield on farms comes from funded varieties, compared with what growers would otherwise have planted.
- Timing. A model that adds research lags and discounting shows when an increase in the rate pays back. Gains that arrive after a lag raise the bar. Gains that last several crops lower it.
Limits of this estimate
The 37% research share is from March 2025 testimony, before the increase took effect [3]. We assume it holds and that net receipts approximate the budget. The comparison is one year of spending against one year of gain, valued at the farm price. Gains other than yield, such as quality premiums, avoided disease losses and market access, would lower the break-even. We did not deduct on-farm seed and feed use, which would lower receipts slightly. The price is the 2025 marketing-year price for all wheat, because the 2026 price is not yet out. The yield trend is context only. This article does not estimate the return research has achieved.
Sources
- North Dakota Legislative Assembly, SB 2161 enrolled bill. https://ndlegis.gov/assembly/69-2025/regular/documents/25-0616-02000.pdf (accessed 2026-10-26)
- North Dakota Wheat Commission newsletter, June 2025, on the move to two cents per bushel from "the level since 2005". https://www.ndwheat.com/_files/ugd/75010f_de1d1a82a71249b19087efafa2d35156.pdf (accessed 2026-10-27)
- Testimony of Mark Birdsall, House Agriculture Committee, March 6, 2025. https://ndlegis.gov/assembly/69-2025/testimony/HAGR-2161-20250306-39173-F-BIRDSALL_MARK.pdf (accessed 2026-10-26)
- USDA NASS Quick Stats, North Dakota wheat, all classes: production, yield, area harvested, price received. Bulk file qs.crops_20261024; 2026 crop from the September 30, 2026 release. https://www.nass.usda.gov/datasets/ (accessed 2026-10-26)
- SB 2161 fiscal note, LC 25.0616.01000, January 15, 2025. https://ndlegis.gov/assembly/69-2025/regular/fiscal-notes/25-0616-01000-fn.pdf (accessed 2026-10-26)