Canada vs US phone and child care prices since 2019
Since January 2019, cell phone service prices fell 50% in Canada and rose 2% in the US. Child care fell 30% in Canada and rose 36% in the US. The same services took opposite paths.
From January 2019 to September 2026, cell phone service prices fell 50% in Canada and rose 2% in the US. Child care prices fell 30% in Canada and rose 36% in the US.
The services are the same and the price paths run in opposite directions. Our reading is that policy and competition explain more of that gap than costs do.
The numbers
Consumer price indexes from Statistics Canada and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2019 to September 2026, not seasonally adjusted.
| Item | Canada | United States |
|---|---|---|
| Cell phone service | -50% | +2% |
| Child care | -30% | +36% |
| Dental care | +39% | +35% |
| Air fares | +21% | +27% |
| All prices | +27% | +34% |
Dental care and air fares are the comparison. They moved up in both countries by similar amounts. That rules out a simple story where everything got cheaper in Canada. Only phones and child care did.
Why it happened
The tables show the price paths, not the causes, so here is our reading.
Child care first. In Budget 2021 the federal government committed over $27 billion over five years to build a Canada-wide early learning and child care system with the provinces and territories [3]. Where fees are regulated, a funded fee cut shows up directly in the price index. Our reading is that this is why the Canadian line falls while the US line climbs.
Phones next. Phone prices follow the number of competing firms and the rules on how new ones can enter. Our reading is that a fall of 50% is larger than network costs alone would explain, and that it reflects competition and plan design. We have not tested which of the two matters more.
What it means
For a policymaker, a price is a result of rules as well as costs. On our reading, fee caps and funded places moved child care prices in a way market forces alone had not. Evaluate such a program by what families pay after it, not by the money spent on it.
For a business in a market with few rivals, a price held above cost invites entry or regulation. Test your price move before you make it.
For a household, check which side of the border’s pattern you live in. A Canadian family should still compare phone plans each year. A US family facing day care costs up 36% should compare providers and ask the employer what help exists.
Limits
The two agencies measure phone service differently, and the Canadian index uses 2017 as its base year. Compare the direction of each move, not the exact size. Child care indexes track fees for the service as defined, not the number of places or waiting lists. Both series start in January 2019, so the path before then is not shown.
Sources
- Statistics Canada, table 18-10-0004-01, Consumer Price Index, not seasonally adjusted (vectors v41690973 all-items, v1212387935 cellular services, v41691073 child care services, v41691161 dental, v41691151 air fares), https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1810000401 (checked 2026-10-29; September 2026 is the latest month)
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U series CUUR0000SA0, SEED03, SEEB03, SEMC02 and SETG01 (all items, wireless telephone services, day care and preschool, dental services, airline fares), https://www.bls.gov/cpi/data.htm (checked 2026-10-29; September 2026 is the latest month)
- Government of Canada, early learning and child care agreements, https://www.canada.ca/en/early-learning-child-care-agreement/agreements-provinces-territories.html (checked 2026-10-29)
We first posted this finding on X: https://x.com/EstimandLab/status/2115443710507073999